Biomethane from agro-industrial residues in Brazil — Outlook 2026–2035

Agro-industrial residues, led by sugarcane, are the sector's main growth reserve for the coming decade. The sugar-energy sector accounts for about 48% of Brazil's national potential, yet had only 5 biomethane-producing units in December 2025. EPE estimates that vinasse and filter cake alone could yield 3.5 billion Nm³/year of biomethane in 2035, roughly seven times the capacity authorized today.

This outlook examines the conditions for that potential to become plants in operation. The regulatory framework is complete, but the mandate target is set year by year, a short horizon for financing assets with a twenty-year life. The demand with the greatest willingness to pay is diesel substitution in heavy-duty transport. And the economics of each plant respond to three variables: price, utilization and investment. Operating year-round, not only during the harvest season, is the segment's biggest competitiveness lever.

By 2035, the sugarcane segment could reach between 1.7 and 5.0 million Nm³/day. The report's base scenario, 3.2 million Nm³/day, requires about 50 new plants and R$ 11 billion in additional investment. The window for positioning narrows until 2028, when the best residues, the best locations and the anchor contracts will already have been allocated.

What you will find in the report

- Market size and trajectory: capacity, production and pipeline

- Feedstock base and the seasonality problem of sugarcane

- Technology, productivity and methane losses

- Project economics and diesel parity

- Demand, offtake and contract structures

- Regulation and incentives: the mandate, CGOB, RenovaBio and tax reform

- Infrastructure, logistics and co-products (biogenic CO₂ and biofertilizers)

- Financing, business models and market dynamics

- Benchmarks from Europe and the United States and lessons for Brazil

- Risk matrix and three scenarios for 2035

- Implications for mills, developers, investors, offtakers and policymakers

The report combines public data consulted on October 2, 2026 with AVENTRA estimates, identified throughout the text. It is intended for mills, gas buyers, investors and other industry participants. It does not constitute an offer or an investment recommendation.